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This page sharpens the exceptional-point threshold of the conditional curve reduction, which belongs to the negative branch of the bounded-blocking sketch. That reduction lets a blocking set have at most about α(Y)p\alpha(Y)p points off a curve YY, where α(Y)\alpha(Y) is the density of lines missing YY. Counting the missed lines through each outside point raises the threshold to about pp, independently of α(Y)\alpha(Y). For unions of conics in odd characteristic the count is proved below by quadratic character sums. For curves of bounded degree in large prime planes it follows from the monodromy of the projection from a point, with the source interfaces and the restriction argument given below. The negative answer then needs a premise that a fixed proportion of every bounded-cap set of linear size lies on a curve of fixed degree. The arguments are author-recorded by Plasma AI, without independent review. Nothing here proves either answer to Problem 1159.

Setting

Let qq be a prime power and Y⊂PG⁡(2,q)Y\subset\operatorname{PG}(2,q) a curve defined over Fq\mathbb F_q. Write Y(Fq)Y(\mathbb F_q) for its rational points, LYL_Y for the set of lines containing none of them, and, for a rational point P∉YP\notin Y,

NP=#{ℓ∈LY:P∈ℓ}.N_P=\#\{\ell\in L_Y:P\in\ell\}.

Every line of LYL_Y has q+1q+1 points, none on YY, so

∑P∉YNP=(q+1) ∣LY∣.(1)\sum_{P\notin Y}N_P=(q+1)\,|L_Y|. \tag{1}

Counting principle. Let BB meet every line, and put T=B∖Y(Fq)T=B\setminus Y(\mathbb F_q). Each line of LYL_Y misses YY and meets BB, so it contains a point of TT. Hence

∣LY∣≤∑P∈TNP.(2)|L_Y|\le\sum_{P\in T}N_P. \tag{2}

The old threshold bounds every NPN_P by q+1q+1. If instead NPN_P is close to its average ∣LY∣(q+1)/(q2+O(q))|L_Y|(q+1)/(q^2+O(q)) for all but boundedly many PP, then (2) forces ∣T∣|T| to be at least about qq.

The threshold qq cannot be raised for arbitrary blocking sets. For qq odd, a conic together with an external line blocks every line, and only the q+1q+1 points of that line lie off the conic. Raising it would need the line cap, which the conic proposition below does not use.

Unions of conics in odd characteristic

Proposition. Let qq be odd and let YY be the union of m≥1m\ge1 distinct nondegenerate conics Q1,…,QmQ_1,\dots,Q_m defined over Fq\mathbb F_q. There is a set EmE_m of at most (2m(m−1)2)\binom{2m(m-1)}2 points such that every rational point P∉Y∪EmP\notin Y\cup E_m satisfies

∣NP−q+12m∣≤mq+2m+1.(3)\left|N_P-\frac{q+1}{2^m}\right|\le m\sqrt q+2m+1. \tag{3}

Consequently, if BB meets every line of PG(2,q)(2,q), T=B∖Y(Fq)T=B\setminus Y(\mathbb F_q), and (q+1)/2m>mq+2m+1(q+1)/2^m>m\sqrt q+2m+1, then

∣T∣(q+12m+mq+2m+1)≥q2+q+1−m(q+1)−∣Em∣q+1(q+12m−mq−2m−1)−∣Em∣(q+1),(4)|T|\left(\frac{q+1}{2^m}+m\sqrt q+2m+1\right) \ge\frac{q^2+q+1-m(q+1)-|E_m|}{q+1} \left(\frac{q+1}{2^m}-m\sqrt q-2m-1\right)-|E_m|(q+1), \tag{4}

so ∣B∖Y(Fq)∣≥q−2m+1mq−Om(1)|B\setminus Y(\mathbb F_q)|\ge q-2^{m+1}m\sqrt q-O_m(1).

Proof. Let Qi(v)=vTAivQ_i(v)=v^{\mathsf T}A_iv with symmetric AiA_i and Bi(u,v)=uTAivB_i(u,v)=u^{\mathsf T}A_iv. Fix a rational P∉YP\notin Y and a line ℓ1∌P\ell_1\not\ni P; the lines through PP are the lines PRPR with R∈ℓ1R\in\ell_1. Parametrize R=R(λ)R=R(\lambda) by λ∈P1(Fq)\lambda\in\mathbb P^1(\mathbb F_q). The points sP+tRsP+tR of PRPR lie on QiQ_i exactly when

Qi(P)s2+2Bi(P,R)st+Qi(R)t2=0.Q_i(P)s^2+2B_i(P,R)st+Q_i(R)t^2=0 .

Since Qi(P)≠0Q_i(P)\ne0, this binary quadratic form is nonzero. As qq is odd, its rational zeros number 00, 11 or 22 according as

Δi(R)=Bi(P,R)2−Qi(P)Qi(R)\Delta_i(R)=B_i(P,R)^2-Q_i(P)Q_i(R)

is a nonsquare, zero, or a nonzero square. Replacing RR by R+cPR+cP leaves Δi\Delta_i unchanged and replacing RR by μR\mu R multiplies it by μ2\mu^2, so its quadratic character χ(Δi)\chi(\Delta_i) depends only on the line. Along ℓ1\ell_1, Δi\Delta_i is a binary quadratic form in λ\lambda. Its zeros are the tangent lines from PP to QiQ_i. There are exactly two of them over F‾q\overline{\mathbb F}_q, because PP is off the conic and the characteristic is odd, so Δi\Delta_i has two distinct roots.

A line through PP misses Y(Fq)Y(\mathbb F_q) exactly when χ(Δi)=−1\chi(\Delta_i)=-1 for every ii. When no Δi\Delta_i vanishes, the product ∏i12(1−χ(Δi))\prod_i\frac12(1-\chi(\Delta_i)) is that indicator. At the at most 2m2m tangent parameters it lies in [0,1][0,1] while the line meets YY at its rational point of tangency. Expanding the product,

NP=12m∑I⊆{1,…,m}(−1)∣I∣SI−θ,SI=∑λ∈P1(Fq)χ(∏i∈IΔi(λ)),0≤θ≤2m,N_P=\frac1{2^m}\sum_{I\subseteq\{1,\dots,m\}}(-1)^{|I|}S_I-\theta, \qquad S_I=\sum_{\lambda\in\mathbb P^1(\mathbb F_q)} \chi\Bigl(\prod_{i\in I}\Delta_i(\lambda)\Bigr), \qquad0\le\theta\le2m,

with S∅=q+1S_\emptyset=q+1. Each fI=∏i∈IΔif_I=\prod_{i\in I}\Delta_i is a binary form of even degree 2∣I∣2|I|, so its character is defined on P1\mathbb P^1. If fIf_I is not a constant multiple of a square, its affine restriction is not either: a form of even degree has an even number of roots of odd multiplicity. Weil's bound in the form of Lidl and Niederreiter, Finite Fields, Theorem 5.41, used at statement level and not re-read here, then gives ∣SI∣≤(2∣I∣−1)q+1|S_I|\le(2|I|-1)\sqrt q+1, the 11 accounting for the parameter at infinity. Summing over nonempty II,

12m∑I≠∅((2∣I∣−1)q+1)=(m−1+2−m)q+1−2−m≤mq+1,\frac1{2^m}\sum_{I\ne\emptyset}\bigl((2|I|-1)\sqrt q+1\bigr) =\Bigl(m-1+2^{-m}\Bigr)\sqrt q+1-2^{-m}\le m\sqrt q+1,

which with θ≤2m\theta\le2m gives (3), unless some fIf_I with I≠∅I\ne\emptyset is a constant multiple of a square.

Suppose fI=c g2f_I=c\,g^2. Then every root of fIf_I has even multiplicity. For ∣I∣=1|I|=1 this is impossible, the two roots being distinct. For ∣I∣≥2|I|\ge2, choose i∈Ii\in I: each of the two tangent lines from PP to QiQ_i is also tangent to some QjQ_j with j∈Ij\in I, j≠ij\ne i. Let T\mathcal T be the set of lines over F‾q\overline{\mathbb F}_q tangent to at least two of the conics. In odd characteristic a nondegenerate conic is recovered from its dual conic, so distinct conics have distinct dual conics, which meet in at most four points. Hence ∣T∣≤4(m2)=2m(m−1)|\mathcal T|\le4\binom m2=2m(m-1). The two tangents from PP to QiQ_i are distinct lines of T\mathcal T through PP, so PP belongs to the set EmE_m of intersection points of two distinct lines of T\mathcal T, which has at most (2m(m−1)2)\binom{2m(m-1)}2 elements. This proves (3).

For (4), there are at least q2+q+1−m(q+1)q^2+q+1-m(q+1) rational points off YY, and NP≥0N_P\ge0 at the points of EmE_m. The lower bound in (3) is positive by hypothesis, so (1) and (3) give

∣LY∣≥q2+q+1−m(q+1)−∣Em∣q+1(q+12m−mq−2m−1).|L_Y|\ge\frac{q^2+q+1-m(q+1)-|E_m|}{q+1} \Bigl(\frac{q+1}{2^m}-m\sqrt q-2m-1\Bigr).

Points of T∩EmT\cap E_m lie on at most q+1q+1 lines, and the other points of TT satisfy (3). Inserting both bounds in (2) gives (4). For fixed mm, dividing (4) by (q+1)/2m+O(q)(q+1)/2^m+O(\sqrt q) gives the stated asymptotic form. □\square

For a single conic, (3) holds with no exceptions. More precisely an internal point lies on (q+1)/2(q+1)/2 external lines and an external point on (q−1)/2(q-1)/2. So a point set blocking the q(q−1)/2q(q-1)/2 external lines has at least q(q−1)/(q+1)>q−2q(q-1)/(q+1)>q-2 points, hence at least q−1q-1. The old threshold gave only about q/2q/2. The exceptional set is genuinely needed when m≥2m\ge2. In characteristic different from two and three, the two conics x2+y2=z2x^2+y^2=z^2 and x2+y2=4z2x^2+y^2=4z^2 have the same pair of tangent lines from the origin, and through the origin about q/2q/2 lines, rather than q/4q/4, miss both. The evidence entry point checks (3), the exceptional count and this example in small prime planes.

Corollary. Let qq be odd, CC and DD fixed, and BB a set meeting every line of PG(2,q)(2,q) in 11 to CC points. Let FF be a nonzero homogeneous form over Fq\mathbb F_q of degree at most DD whose geometrically irreducible nonlinear components defined over Fq\mathbb F_q are all conics. Then

∣B∖V(F)∣≥q−OC,D(q).|B\setminus V(F)|\ge q-O_{C,D}(\sqrt q).

Indeed, the line components contain at most CDCD points of BB and the other non-conic components at most D2D^2 rational points in total, as in the curve reduction. Apply the proposition to the union of the conic components if it is nonempty; otherwise ∣B∣≥q+1|B|\ge q+1 gives the conclusion directly. In particular, at cap CC a bounded union of lines and conics contains at most ∣B∣−q+O(q)|B|-q+O(\sqrt q) points of BB. Since a cap-CC blocking set has at most about CqCq points, this bounds the portion of BB that such curves can carry. It does not by itself contradict blocking, because nothing forces BB to lie mostly on conics.

Odd characteristic is essential. In PG(2,2h)(2,2^h) with h≥2h\ge2 the three conics of the parity construction meet every line in one to six points and leave no point outside their union. There every tangent of a conic passes through its nucleus, so the discriminant argument above has no analogue.

The pencil count for curves of bounded degree

For general YY the same count needs the distribution of rational points in the fibres of the projection from PP. Exceptional points cannot be avoided, but for sets with a line cap it suffices that they lie on boundedly many lines.

Proposition 2. Fix D≥2D\ge2. There are constants L(D)L(D) and c(D)c(D) with the following property. Let p>D!p>D! be prime and let YY be a nonempty reduced union of geometrically irreducible curves defined over Fp\mathbb F_p, of degrees di≥2d_i\ge2 and total degree at most DD. Outside a union of at most L(D)L(D) lines, every rational point P∉YP\notin Y satisfies

∣NP−α(Y)p∣≤c(D)p,α(Y)=∏iδdi.(5)\bigl|N_P-\alpha(Y)p\bigr|\le c(D)\sqrt p, \qquad \alpha(Y)=\prod_i\delta_{d_i}. \tag{5}

Here δd\delta_d is the proportion of fixed-point-free permutations in SdS_d, as in the curve reduction. One may take L(D)=4D4L(D)=4D^4. The constants are uniform over the coefficients and components of YY.

Proof. Work first over k=F‾pk=\overline{\mathbb F}_p. Let Σ\Sigma be the singular points of the whole reduced curve YY, including intersections of different components. In the dual plane put

Δ=Y∨ ∪ ⋃S∈ΣS∗,U=(P2)∗∖Δ,\Delta=Y^\vee\ \cup\ \bigcup_{S\in\Sigma}S^*, \qquad U=(\mathbb P^2)^*\setminus\Delta,

where S∗S^* parametrizes lines through SS and Δ\Delta has its reduced structure. Thus UU is exactly the set of lines meeting YY in deg⁡Y\deg Y distinct geometric points. The incidence morphism X={(Q,ℓ):ℓ∈U, Q∈Y∩ℓ}→UX=\{(Q,\ell):\ell\in U,\ Q\in Y\cap\ell\}\to U is finite étale.

The degree assumption makes each component reflexive. The precise external input is the degree-below-characteristic consequence of Hefez's generic-contact discussion, specified under the source interfaces below. In odd characteristic reflexivity gives simple generic tangency. Distinct reflexive components have distinct dual curves, by biduality. A generic tangent to one component therefore has contact exactly two there and meets every other component transversally, away from all singular points. The whole union is quasireflexive in Entin's sense. His Theorem 2 gives geometric monodromy

G=∏iSdi.G=\prod_i S_{d_i}.

In the plane case its mechanism can be seen directly. For each component, the off-diagonal fibre square of the incidence morphism is birational to Yi×YiY_i\times Y_i: two distinct points determine their line. This gives double transitivity on that component's fibre. A simple tangent on YiY_i gives an inertia element which transposes two sheets of that component and fixes the sheets of every other component. Conjugating this element using double transitivity gives every transposition supported on the iith factor. Doing this for each ii gives the product, without inferring joint independence merely from pairwise independence.

We next specify the exceptional lines. A generic polar of a reduced degree-at-most-DD plane curve has no component in common with it, so Bézout bounds ∣Σ∣|\Sigma| by D(D−1)D(D-1). The same polar argument bounds deg⁡Yi∨\deg Y_i^\vee by di(di−1)d_i(d_i-1). Consequently

b:=deg⁡Δ≤2D(D−1).b:=\deg\Delta\le 2D(D-1).

The reduced plane curve Δ\Delta has at most b(b−1)b(b-1) singular geometric points, again by a generic polar. Let EE be the union, in the original plane, of the lines dual to those points. It has at most 4D44D^4 components.

Fix P∉Y∪EP\notin Y\cup E. Its pencil P∗P^* misses Sing⁡Δ\operatorname{Sing}\Delta. It is not a component S∗S^* of Δ\Delta, because that would say P=S∈YP=S\in Y. None of the dual curves Yi∨Y_i^\vee is a line, by reflexivity and di≥2d_i\ge2. At a smooth point ℓ\ell of Yi∨Y_i^\vee, biduality identifies its tangent with Q∗Q^* for some Q∈YiQ\in Y_i. Thus P∗P^* can be tangent to this dual curve only if P=QP=Q, also excluded. Its intersections with the line components S∗S^* are transverse. We have proved that P∗P^* meets Δ\Delta only transversally at smooth points.

Let π:Ω→(P2)∗\pi:\Omega\to(\mathbb P^2)^* be the normalization in the function field of the connected geometric Galois closure over UU. The surface Ω\Omega is normal, integral and projective, and π\pi is finite. Write Z=π−1(P∗)Z=\pi^{-1}(P^*) as a scheme. It is an effective ample Cartier divisor: it is the pullback of a line under a finite surjection.

Here is the needed connectedness argument. A normal surface is Cohen--Macaulay and has a dualizing sheaf ωΩ\omega_\Omega. Serre duality and Serre vanishing give, for sufficiently large nn,

H1(Ω,OΩ(−nZ))≅H1(Ω,ωΩ(nZ))∨=0.H^1(\Omega,\mathcal O_\Omega(-nZ)) \cong H^1(\Omega,\omega_\Omega(nZ))^\vee=0.

In the exact sequence for the effective divisor nZnZ, the restriction of global functions therefore gives H0(nZ,OnZ)=kH^0(nZ,\mathcal O_{nZ})=k: global functions on the integral projective surface are constant, and a constant vanishing on nZnZ is zero. A disconnected ZZ would give a nontrivial idempotent on nZnZ. Thus ZZ is connected.

It is also smooth. Over UU, π\pi is étale, so this is immediate there. Its Galois group has order ∏idi!≤D!<p\prod_i d_i!\le D!<p, making the cover tame at every component of Δ\Delta. Near a smooth point of Δ\Delta, Abhyankar's lemma expresses the normalization, étale locally, as a disjoint union of covers obtained by adjoining zz with ze=tz^e=t, where t=0t=0 defines Δ\Delta and p∤ep\nmid e. Since P∗P^* is transverse, choose a second local parameter ss with P∗=(s=0)P^*=(s=0). The restriction is locally ze=tz^e=t over this smooth line, hence has regular local parameter zz. This proves smoothness everywhere on ZZ.

A connected smooth curve is irreducible. Removing the finitely many points above Δ\Delta leaves a connected Galois cover of P∗∩UP^*\cap U of degree ∣G∣|G|. Therefore the restricted incidence cover has geometric monodromy GG. The arithmetic group preserves each YiY_i, since every component is defined over Fp\mathbb F_p, and so is a subgroup of ∏iSdi\prod_iS_{d_i}. It contains the geometric group, already equal to that product. The two groups coincide.

Finally apply Entin's Theorem 3 to the incidence cover restricted to P∗∩UP^*\cap U. Its base is a geometrically irreducible open subset of P1\mathbb P^1. Its morphism complexity is bounded in terms of DD: the equations for YY, incidence, membership in P∗P^* and exclusion of Δ\Delta have bounded degree in fixed-dimensional projective products. The arithmetic-to-geometric quotient is trivial, so the theorem's constant-field factor is one. Summing its estimate over the conjugacy classes having no fixed point on any component gives

#{ℓ∈(P∗∩U)(Fp):ℓ∩Y(Fp)=∅}=α(Y)p+OD(p).\#\{\ell\in(P^*\cap U)(\mathbb F_p): \ell\cap Y(\mathbb F_p)=\varnothing\} =\alpha(Y)p+O_D(\sqrt p).

There are at most bb omitted pencil parameters. Adding any of them which also miss the rational points changes the count by OD(1)O_D(1), proving (5).

The exceptional lines were defined over kk. A non-rational geometric line contains at most one Fp\mathbb F_p-point; choose any rational line through that point if it exists. This replaces EE by at most the same number of rational lines covering all its rational points, as required. □\square

The restriction proof includes singular curves. A projection of a branch of multiplicity at least three can have ramification index at least three for every centre; avoiding flex tangents does not make all its inertia transpositions. The proof uses transpositions to determine the monodromy of the whole family and uses tame local models, allowing higher ramification indices, to restrict that family to the pencil.

Source interfaces and reading depth

These are external premises of the author-recorded proof, not claims of independent verification.

  • Hefez, Non-reflexive curves, Compositio Math. 69 (1989), Section 2, equation (2.1) and the consequence at the top of printed p. 5 (article): a nonlinear irreducible curve of degree less than the characteristic is reflexive. The consequence and its generic-contact context were inspected at statement level. The original generic-contact proof, attributed there to Hefez and Kleiman, and the Segre--Wallace separability criterion were not reconstructed.
  • Entin, Monodromy of hyperplane sections of curves and decomposition statistics over finite fields, arXiv:1805.05454v3: Proposition 2.1 identifies reflexivity with quasireflexivity in odd characteristic; Theorem 2 gives the full product monodromy for a quasireflexive union; Theorem 3 counts Frobenius classes in finite étale covers with error uniform in morphism complexity. Sections 2--5, including the monodromy and twisting proofs, were read in the v3 TeX. The cited general contact, monodromy-action, descent and Lang--Weil theorems remain external inputs. No comparison with the journal edition was made.
  • The Stacks Project, Lemma 58.31.5, tag 0EYG: a finite étale cover tame in codimension one along a regular effective Cartier divisor is étale locally a disjoint union of the standard root covers. Its statement and proof were read. It is used only near the smooth points of Δ\Delta, where the base is a regular surface and the branch divisor is regular.
  • The Stacks Project, Lemmas 30.17.1--2, tag 01XO, supply Serre vanishing and preservation of ampleness by a finite surjective pullback. Their statements and proofs were read. Lemma 48.27.5 and Remark 48.27.6, tag 0FVU, supply Serre duality on a proper Cohen--Macaulay scheme. Their statements and displayed derivations were read; the underlying duality theory was not reconstructed. Here the scheme is the normal projective surface Ω\Omega, the sheaf being dualized is the invertible sheaf OΩ(−nZ)\mathcal O_\Omega(-nZ), and its dimension is two.

For completeness, summing (5) through (1) gives the global lower bound

∣LY∣≥α(Y)p2−OD(p3/2).(6)|L_Y|\ge\alpha(Y)p^2-O_D(p^{3/2}). \tag{6}

Indeed, at most D(p+1)D(p+1) rational points lie on YY, by counting their incidences with all lines, none of which is a component of YY. At most L(D)(p+1)L(D)(p+1) lie on the exceptional lines. Thus p2−OD(p)p^2-O_D(p) points contribute at least α(Y)p−c(D)p\alpha(Y)p-c(D)\sqrt p each to (1), which proves (6) for large pp. This also recovers the lower bound needed from the global source estimate.

For conics the first proposition gives the stronger conclusion, with finitely many exceptional points and explicit constants, in every odd characteristic, by an elementary argument. For cubics the evidence entry point computes every NPN_P at p=211p=211 for a Fermat, a nodal, a cuspidal and a smooth cubic. All but 33, 33, 11 and 00 points off the curve satisfy ∣NP−p/3∣≤2p|N_P-p/3|\le2\sqrt p. The exceptions of the Fermat cubic are the three coordinate points, from which the projection is a cyclic cover. They lie on its flex tangents, such as x+ωy=0x+\omega y=0 through (0:0:1)(0:0:1) with ω2+ω+1=0\omega^2+\omega+1=0, which are rational because 211≡1(mod3)211\equiv1\pmod3, as Proposition 2 permits. For a cubic with a conic and for two cubics, the same bound with α=1/6\alpha=1/6 and 1/91/9 fails at only 22 and 00 points. These main terms are the products of the component densities; the empirical constant 22 and the exact exception counts are finite observations, not consequences of Proposition 2. The two-cubic example has total degree six and 211<6!211<6!, outside that proposition's convenient sufficient characteristic range. None of these examples verifies the uniform estimate.

The sharpened reduction

Theorem A. Fix positive integers C,DC,D. For all sufficiently large primes pp, every set B⊆PG⁡(2,p)B\subseteq\operatorname{PG}(2,p) meeting each line in 11 to CC points, and every nonzero homogeneous form F∈Fp[X,Y,Z]F\in\mathbb F_p[X,Y,Z] of degree at most DD, satisfy

∣B∖V(F)∣≥p−OC,D(p).|B\setminus V(F)|\ge p-O_{C,D}(\sqrt p).

Proof. Discard the line components of FF and its components that are not geometrically irreducible, at a cost of at most CD+D2CD+D^2 points of BB, as in the curve reduction. Let YY be the remaining union and T=B∖Y(Fp)T=B\setminus Y(\mathbb F_p). If YY is empty, ∣T∣=∣B∣≥p+1|T|=|B|\ge p+1. Otherwise Proposition 2 summed through (1), or the source estimate of the curve reduction, together with the bound α(Y)≥1/M(D)\alpha(Y)\ge1/M(D) of that page, gives ∣LY∣≥α(Y)p2(1−OD(p−1/2))|L_Y|\ge\alpha(Y)p^2(1-O_D(p^{-1/2})). At most CL(D)CL(D) points of TT lie on the exceptional lines of Proposition 2, and each lies on at most p+1p+1 lines. So (2) gives

α(Y)p2(1−OD(p−1/2))≤∣T∣(α(Y)p+c(D)p)+CL(D)(p+1).\alpha(Y)p^2\bigl(1-O_D(p^{-1/2})\bigr) \le|T|\bigl(\alpha(Y)p+c(D)\sqrt p\bigr)+CL(D)(p+1).

Dividing by α(Y)p\alpha(Y)p, which is at least p/M(D)p/M(D), gives ∣T∣≥p−OC,D(p)|T|\ge p-O_{C,D}(\sqrt p). Adding back the discarded components costs OC,D(1)O_{C,D}(1). □\square

For unions of lines and conics the corollary above proves Theorem A by the elementary argument, in every odd order.

Theorem B. Fix a cap CC and assume the following.

Positive-proportion extraction WEC\mathrm{WE}_C. There are ε∈(0,1)\varepsilon\in(0,1), an integer d≥1d\ge1 and 0<η≤10<\eta\le1 such that, for all sufficiently large primes pp, every S⊆PG⁡(2,p)S\subseteq\operatorname{PG}(2,p) meeting each line in at most CC points and having ∣S∣≥(1−ε)p|S|\ge(1-\varepsilon)p has at least η∣S∣\eta|S| points on some curve defined over Fp\mathbb F_p of degree at most dd.

Then no set in PG(2,p)(2,p) meets every line in 11 to CC points once pp is large. If WEC\mathrm{WE}_C holds for every CC, then c(PG⁡(2,p))→∞c(\operatorname{PG}(2,p))\to\infty along the primes, and Problem 1159 has a negative answer.

Proof. Let BB be such a set and R0=BR_0=B. While ∣Rj∣≥(1−ε)p|R_j|\ge(1-\varepsilon)p, apply WEC\mathrm{WE}_C to RjR_j, which still meets each line in at most CC points, to obtain Fj+1F_{j+1}, and put Rj+1=Rj∖V(Fj+1)R_{j+1}=R_j\setminus V(F_{j+1}). Then ∣Rj∣≤(1−η)j∣B∣|R_j|\le(1-\eta)^j|B| and ∣B∣≤(C+1)p|B|\le(C+1)p, by counting incidences, so the process stops after at most t=⌈log⁡((C+1)/(1−ε))/η⌉t=\lceil\log((C+1)/(1-\varepsilon))/\eta\rceil steps, a number independent of pp. If it stops at step j≤tj\le t, the product F=F1⋯FjF=F_1\cdots F_j has degree at most tdtd, and ∣B∖V(F)∣=∣Rj∣<(1−ε)p|B\setminus V(F)|=|R_j|<(1-\varepsilon)p. This contradicts Theorem A at degree tdtd once pp is large. □\square

Compared with the repeated-extraction test of the curve reduction, the contraction condition M(d)(1−η)<1M(d)(1-\eta)<1 disappears: any fixed η>0\eta>0 suffices, because the threshold for exceptional points no longer decreases as the total degree grows. The residual hypothesis also disappears. Each residual keeps the cap and its size stays at least (1−ε)p(1-\varepsilon)p until the iteration stops, and WEC\mathrm{WE}_C is asked of arbitrary bounded-cap sets, not of blocking sets.

A relative invariant with tangents

A weaker extraction premise suffices. In the preceding proof each residual RjR_j meets every line missing Yj=V(F1⋯Fj)Y_j=V(F_1\cdots F_j), because BB meets every line. To use that weaker premise, the quantifiers must still be uniform: choose ε,d,η\varepsilon,d,\eta first and then t=⌈log⁡((C+1)/(1−ε))/η⌉t=\lceil\log((C+1)/(1-\varepsilon))/\eta\rceil. Require the extraction statement for each 0≤j<t0\le j<t, every degree-at-most-jdjd curve YjY_j (with Y0=∅Y_0=\varnothing), and every cap-CC set RjR_j of size at least (1−ε)p(1-\varepsilon)p blocking the lines missing YjY_j, with one threshold for pp. Allowing dd or η\eta to deteriorate with jj without a termination bound does not establish this premise.

There is a stronger valid invariant which retains minimality and tangents, provided the covered points, not just their containing curve, stay in the state. Initially delete to an inclusion-minimal blocking set BB, and keep this same BB throughout. Put

Aj=B∩Yj,Rj=B∖Yj,L(Aj)={ℓ:ℓ∩Aj=∅}.A_j=B\cap Y_j,\qquad R_j=B\setminus Y_j,\qquad \mathcal L(A_j)=\{\ell:\ell\cap A_j=\varnothing\}.

Then RjR_j is an inclusion-minimal blocking set for the line family L(Aj)\mathcal L(A_j). It blocks that family because Aj∪Rj=BA_j\cup R_j=B. For each P∈RjP\in R_j, a tangent to the original minimal BB avoids AjA_j and meets RjR_j only at PP, proving relative minimality. The line cap holds for the union Aj∪RjA_j\cup R_j, as well as for the residual.

Thus one can replace WEC\mathrm{WE}_C by an extraction theorem for these triples (Yj,Aj,Rj)(Y_j,A_j,R_j), with the same uniform constants through j<tj<t. The required curve must capture a fraction of RjR_j, not merely a fraction of Aj∪RjA_j\cup R_j. An extraction theorem stated only for minimal blocking sets does not imply this: its captured points could all belong to AjA_j.

The family L(Aj)\mathcal L(A_j) includes the lines which meet YjY_j only outside BB. Deleting points merely because the lines missing the whole curve remain blocked can uncover such a line. Likewise a tangent to BB at a residual point need not miss the whole curve. The two relative line families cannot be interchanged.

Standing

The first proposition and its corollary are author-recorded proofs resting on Weil's bound. Proposition 2 and Theorem A are author-recorded proofs with the external interfaces and reading depth specified above. Theorem B proves a conditional implication from WEC\mathrm{WE}_C. None has independent review, and no result here settles Problem 1159.

WEC\mathrm{WE}_C is the remaining structural premise. Nothing here proves it for any C≥3C\ge3, and no counterexample to it is supplied. It concerns arbitrary bounded-cap sets, so it is not vacuous: a conic and unions of boundedly many nonlinear curves give examples of sets to which it applies for suitable caps. The heuristic that bounded line intersections require structure does not show that the structure is algebraic.

Given the source estimate, restricting the curve reduction's approximation premise to inclusion-minimal cap-CC blocking sets is logically equivalent to their nonexistence in large prime planes. The forward direction is the counting contradiction; the reverse direction is vacuity. This equivalence does not rule out a useful proof by contradiction exploiting the covering and tangent hypotheses. It identifies what that restricted approximation theorem would have to establish, without supplying it.

Because Theorem A leaves about pp points off every curve, extraction is needed only for sets of at least (1−ε)p(1-\varepsilon)p points, with any fixed ε>0\varepsilon>0. For arcs this case is known. Ball and Lavrauw, Arcs in finite projective spaces (arXiv:1908.10772v2), Theorem 52, state that in PG(2,p)(2,p) with pp prime an arc of more than 4445p+89\frac{44}{45}p+\frac89 points lies on a conic, attributing it to Voloch, J. Geom. 38 (1990), 198–200. Only the statement in the survey's extracted text was read; the original was not. So WE2\mathrm{WE}_2 holds with ε<1/45\varepsilon<1/45, d=2d=2 and η=1\eta=1, but cap-two blocking sets are already excluded by L27. For C≥3C\ge3 no comparable theorem is known to us. Segre's method behind such results uses the few tangent lines of a nearly maximal arc; a set of about pp points with cap C≥3C\ge3 can have a positive proportion of lines of every load through each of its points, and no proof of WEC\mathrm{WE}_C is supplied here. Random sets of linear size have line intersections growing with pp, so they supply no test cases.

Next discriminating test

The decisive input is WEC\mathrm{WE}_C, or the uniform relative blocking version above, for every fixed CC (an unbounded sequence of caps would also suffice). Together with Theorem A it would give a negative answer to Problem 1159. A result only for small caps would raise lower bounds without answering the problem.

A direct attack can instead exploit the product of the dual covering lines; the covering-polynomial account retains its exact identities and the point where the freeness route fails to produce a fixed-degree extraction. No implication from those identities to WEC\mathrm{WE}_C is known here.